The Mortgage Buzz

Earlier this week, the private-sector Case-Shiller Index showed home prices slightly lower between November and December.  Thursday, the public-sector Home Price Index showed the same.

Publishing on a 2-month lag, the Federal Home Finance Agency said home prices fell by 1.6 percent nationally in December.  And that’s an average, of course.  Some regions performed well in December as compared to November, others didn’t.

• Values in the Middle Atlantic states improved slightly
• Values in New England were essentially unchanged
• Values in the Mountain states sagged, down 3.5%

These aren’t just footnotes. They’re an important piece toward understanding what national real estate statistics really mean. In short, “national statistics” are just a compilation of a bunch of local statistics.

For example, if we dig deeper into the FHFA Home Price Index 70-page report, we find that cities like Terre Haute, IN, Buffalo, NY, and Amarillo, TX posted year-over-year home price gains. You won’t see that in a “national” report.

Furthermore, it’s a sure bet that those same cities, you could find neighborhoods that are thriving, and others that are not.  Just because the city shows higher home values overall, it won’t necessarily be the case for every home in the city.

Every street in every neighborhood of every town in America has its own “local real estate market” and, in the end, that’s what should be most important to today’s buyers and sellers.  National data helps identify trends and shape government policy but, to the layperson, it’s somewhat irrelevant.

So, when you need to know whether your home in chicago is gaining or losing value, you can’t look at the national data.  You have to look at your block — what’s selling and not selling — and start your valuations from there.

More positive signals from housing — home values are still on the rise.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, after posting its first quarterly increase since 2007 this past September, the Home Price Index rose by another 0.6 percent in October.

Prices are up in 4 of the last six months.

But before we take the stats to the proverbial bank, it’s important that we recognize the Home Price Index for its shortcomings.

1. HPI only accounts for homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
2. HPI only accounts for re-sold homes — newly-built homes are excluded
3. HPI aggregates national data whereas real estate markets are local phenomena

On a broad scale, the Home Price Index can be useful, but it doesn’t specifically apply to chicago or any specific U.S. market.  For that, analysts tend to turn to the Case-Shiller Index, a privately-produced report that assesses home values in 20 cities nationwide.

The good news for home sellers in manhattan is that Case-Shiller’s most recent report corroborates the government’s conclusion — home values are creeping back.

Home buyers should pay attention. When public and private sector data is in accord, markets tend to go along and, looking back, housing likely bottomed in February 2009.  Since then, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased in most U.S. markets.  Furthermore, so long as mortgage rates remain low and government stimulus is in place, the trend should continue through at least the first quarter of 2010.

If you’re on the fence about buying a home right now, or wondering about timing, consider your options vis-a-vis today’s market.  Into the new year, homes won’t likely be as cheap to buy, nor to finance.